Gold’s Moment of Truth: Will the Bull Run Continue?

Today was a tough day for the stock market bears and PM complex bulls. Can an agreement with China on tariffs end the bull market for the PM complex, which has been rallying since the 2022 low?

The long-term charts are saying no, but it’s the short term that we have to watch very closely. So far, gold is still forming a possible small trading range above the top rail of its uptrend channel, with 3150 being the first area of support. Gold still hasn’t formed a lower low yet.

Line charts do a good job of taking a lot of the noise out from a bar chart and can show double tops and bottoms more clearly. Is gold forming a double top, or is the new trading range still under construction?

This short-term chart for gold shows the possible double top or bull flag that is still looking for the 4th reversal point. If the possible double top trendline fails to hold support, the previous high could be where gold may find that 4th reversal point in the bull flag. The previous low made on the way up at 2970 would be an important line in the sand, as that would set up another lower low.

Last night, we looked at this long-term monthly chart for gold, which shows its 2000 secular bull market uptrend channel, currently testing the center dashed midline. The all-important 10-month EMA comes in at 2871, with the 20-month EMA at 2611.